Choose the encounter state first, then compare the effective probability per tool. A stronger multiplier cannot override capture prohibition.
In this guide
Hold the encounter constant
Tool comparisons become useful only when the target and circumstances stay fixed. Start with the state-specific calculation in the catch-rate reference. Write down the resulting probability before the pod multiplier. This is your comparison baseline, not a universal creature catch rate.
For illustration, suppose all other applicable factors produce 20%. This is an invented input used to show the arithmetic, not a measured rate for Emberpup, Susuta or any other species. Multiply the same input by each tool factor. If you also change HP, target level or status, you are comparing entire encounters rather than tools.
| Tool | Published factor | Illustrative result |
|---|---|---|
| Regular | ×1 | 20% |
| Pro | ×1.5 | 30% |
| Hyper / Trace / Mega | ×2 | 40% |
| Tumbler: ordinary / Wild Surge | ×2 / ×6 | 40% / 100% cap |
References: Official Probability Details
Compare value with your own costs
Let one regular pod cost one unit of whatever resource you are currently short of. Under the simple example, a Pro gives 1.5 times the success probability. If it costs twice as much, that does not automatically make it the economical choice. However, a short-lived opportunity or expensive journey can make a higher one-attempt probability more valuable than low material cost.
For independent repeated attempts with an unchanged probability p, the mathematical expected attempt count is 1/p: 5 at 20%, about 3.33 at 30%, and 2.5 at 40%. These are model averages across many sequences. They are not a promise that an encounter allows unlimited retries or that five throws will succeed. Stop using this model when the target state changes.
Check guarantees and rear attacks before choosing
The official table gives Ultra and Sparkling Cube guaranteed outcomes within eligibility rules. It also specifies rear-attack eligibility separately and excludes Tumblers from that bonus. Do not multiply a Tumbler result by an extra rear-attack factor. The status guide explains why a favorable animation alone is not enough.
Before leaving town, record three things: your intended target, the ordinary tool you can replace cheaply, and the limited tool reserved for a particular opportunity. After an unsuccessful attempt, inspect the new encounter state before spending the reserve. Resource planning should react to what changed instead of escalating automatically after every failure.
References: Official Probability Details
Common questions
Are Hyper, Trace and Mega identical?
Their published capture multipliers match. That alone does not establish identical handling, availability or other tool behavior.
Does a 40% chance guarantee success within three throws?
No. Probability is not a countdown; an unchanged independent model still permits any finite sequence of failures.
Sources & reference notes
Reviewed 2026-09-14. These references describe the scope of this record; details can change.
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